10.19.2011

Transit Priority: The Bookstore

On the bus or train, I usually have my head down studying my English notes or looking out the window listening to guitar tracks from Rodrigo y Gabriela.  But sometimes I like to look at the other riders.

Oftentimes, they're also head down, thumbs tapping away at the screen of their smartphones.  Most times their earphones are also plugged into their ears.  I see one middle-aged man rustling his newspaper as he flattens out the next page.  But he's just one.  

I'm not passing judgment, but does the conspicuous lack of books mean anything about this technological era?  Maybe those stories are all on iPads and Kindles.  And I guess there's nothing wrong with that, but I prefer holding books, returning back to the dog-eared page.  There's something reassuring in their weight, their physicality.

There is no bookstore in the Montebello Town Center.  There used to be a Borders.  That was the first store I would see as a kid when my dad would take us to the mall.  I loved browsing through the titles, randomly picking up a book and reading the first words.  That bookstore is gone now and I don't think there's another one within miles.  I know about the comic bookstore on Beverly, but I'm writing about bookstores like Barnes & Noble, not that I have anything against comics.  But this lack of bookstores, I wonder what that says about Montebello.

10.11.2011

The World in 2050 Lecture Review Continued

Four forces are inciting change in the North and they are demographics, natural resources, globalization, and climate change.  Climate change future projections demonstrate that social, lifestyle choices really matters over the long run, global warming is neither truly global or truly warming and lastly, some places will be hit even worse while other places may actually benefit from climate change.

The Arctic is one of those places that will be dramatically altered for the worst.  Professor Smith recounted a story about Jim Martell's hunting experience in northern Canada, recently in 2007.  Martell had gone up to canada to hunt and shot what he thought was a polar bear.  However, when he got closer to the bear, Martell saw that the bear closely resembled a grizzly bear and in fact, it was later verified that this bear was a polar bear/ grizzly crossbreed, now dubbed "pizzly."  There have only been two incidents such as these, but it is possible to infer that grizzly bears are moving north into the arctic due to the warming.  I was surprised when Professor Smith stated that plants and animals are moving north at the rate of 6.1 km/decade, which is roughly 6ft per day.  Seal hunting was a booming business in Greenland, but now potato farms are on the rise, which is contributing significantly to Greenland's economy.  This is also because of global warming.

 Not all news related to climate change are positive.  The Mountain Pine Beetle in Canada completely destroys acres of forests and communities.  The population had been kept in check before by the winter frost, but now the beetle population is growing.

In my previous post, I mentioned briefly that the sea ice extent is decreasing, which means that there will be more development in shipping routes across the Arctic ocean and even through the North Pole. Unlike Antarctica, which is a continent under a lot of ice, the North Pole is just floating sea ice, albeit a lot of floating sea ice.  Many of the northern countries, especially Canada, Russia and Greenland are looking to claim a piece of the Arctic Sea as their own, however each country must scientifically prove that the sea is an extension of their country.  These shipping routes contribute to the rapid increase of exploitation activity through the Arcitic including activities such as mining and oil. 

While the shipping routes are increasing, landscapes in the North are transforming into wild, abandoned land.  In Barrow, Alaska the permafrost thaw becomes wet mud.  Permafrost is stabe as long as it doesn't thaw, but the rising temperatures cause permafrost thaw, which in turn causes buildings to crack and collapse.

In terms of human demographics, Canada's population is expected to grow 31% by 2050 because of immigration.  Canada runs their immigration policy primarily through skilled labor and then family reunification.  In 2050, the world will be beginning to compete for skilled immigrants and this is already apparent in Toronto, Helsinki, and Stockholm.  Greenland is witnessing a rising population of Inuit Eskimo.

In summary, Professor Smith outlined two important factors contributing to change in the North:
The Push - global pressures from
     rising urban population and prosperity
     rising natural resources, hydrocarbon demand
     globalized business model and workforce
     rising temperatures, coastal hazards, droughts, floods
     species extinction and biodiversity loss

The Pull
     milder winters
     rising biomass and biodiversity
     water abundance
     rising maritime access (but not land)
     highly globalized economies
     secure peaceful borders
     some favorable demographics
     rising immigration

The lecture definitely provided interesting topics of discussion.  For instance, one man asked how the Inuit Eskimos feel about the rising development and expansion of shipping routes in the North and the professor responded that they want business to develop there.  It was an interesting evening.  I didn't care so much for the time since it began at 8pm and didn't end until around 9:30, but it was a great lecture.

The World in 2050 Lecture Review

Friday, October 6 was the first lecture by the Los Angeles Geographical Society I attended.  It was called The New North: Four Forces Shaping the World in 2050 and it was presented by Laurence C. Smith, Professor and Vice-Chair of Geography at UCLA.

Professor Smith discussed his research, which spanned 15 months over 2006 and 2007 through a Guggenheim Fellowship studying Arctic climate change and its impact on the people of the north.  I was surprised that the lecture closely related the material I am studying in my geography courses at school. Professor Smith spoke a bit about Iceland and Russia and in my mind I felt proud that I knew certain geographical features of Iceland and Russia's dash for a piece of the Arctic Ocean.  I know it seems trivial, but when I've attended these sorts of conferences in the past, I didn't have the background knowledge to understand the information being presented.  I vaguely remember attending a cognitive science lecture at the Los Angeles Convention Center (I don't remember when or why I was there) and I could not understand anything.  I did get to hold an actual brain, but as far as information went, I could not process the knowledge. So, it feels pretty good that I can go to a geographical lecture and connect the decreasing extent of sea ice and what that means for shipping routes in the Arctic (very big expansion).

The lecture focused on four forces: 
1. Demographics - urbanization, migration
2. Natural Resources  
3. Globalization - trade deregulation, multi-national corporations
4. Climate Change

Demographics
In 2008, the world surpassed a major threshold.  More people were now living in the cities than in rural areas.  I wonder if that means that the Anthropocene epoch is indisputably here?  The human population is growing, but interestingly fertility rates in developing countries are declining.

Natural Resources
There is a recurring theme amongst the book world regarding natural resources and that is "conflict" especially in Iraq and the Middle East.  This theme of resource conflict emerged again and again in Professor Smith's lecture, which is influenced by climate change.

Climate Change
The seal level is rising and the snow level illustrates a downward trend. Meanwhile, CO2 emissions are continuously rising.  The figure below projects what the future looks like based on three emissions scenarios: low growth, moderate growth and high growth.
Source: NASA Earth Observatory, based on IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
So the future looks pretty grim.  Indeed, Professor Smith stated that even an aggressive reform would not entirely help, but he asserted that this does not mean that we throw up our hands and give up.  This should actually inspire people to take action.

1. Social choice really matters in the long run
2. Global warming is neither truly global or warming
3. Some places will be hit even worse by climate change

One of those places to be hit hardest is the North, which will be the topic of my next blog post