Four forces are inciting change in the North and they are demographics, natural resources, globalization, and climate change. Climate change future projections demonstrate that social, lifestyle choices really matters over the long run, global warming is neither truly global or truly warming and lastly, some places will be hit even worse while other places may actually benefit from climate change.
The Arctic is one of those places that will be dramatically altered for the worst. Professor Smith recounted a story about Jim Martell's hunting experience in northern Canada, recently in 2007. Martell had gone up to canada to hunt and shot what he thought was a polar bear. However, when he got closer to the bear, Martell saw that the bear closely resembled a grizzly bear and in fact, it was later verified that this bear was a polar bear/ grizzly crossbreed, now dubbed "pizzly." There have only been two incidents such as these, but it is possible to infer that grizzly bears are moving north into the arctic due to the warming. I was surprised when Professor Smith stated that plants and animals are moving north at the rate of 6.1 km/decade, which is roughly 6ft per day. Seal hunting was a booming business in Greenland, but now potato farms are on the rise, which is contributing significantly to Greenland's economy. This is also because of global warming.
Not all news related to climate change are positive. The Mountain Pine Beetle in Canada completely destroys acres of forests and communities. The population had been kept in check before by the winter frost, but now the beetle population is growing.
In my previous post, I mentioned briefly that the sea ice extent is decreasing, which means that there will be more development in shipping routes across the Arctic ocean and even through the North Pole. Unlike Antarctica, which is a continent under a lot of ice, the North Pole is just floating sea ice, albeit a lot of floating sea ice. Many of the northern countries, especially Canada, Russia and Greenland are looking to claim a piece of the Arctic Sea as their own, however each country must scientifically prove that the sea is an extension of their country. These shipping routes contribute to the rapid increase of exploitation activity through the Arcitic including activities such as mining and oil.
While the shipping routes are increasing, landscapes in the North are transforming into wild, abandoned land. In Barrow, Alaska the permafrost thaw becomes wet mud. Permafrost is stabe as long as it doesn't thaw, but the rising temperatures cause permafrost thaw, which in turn causes buildings to crack and collapse.
In terms of human demographics, Canada's population is expected to grow 31% by 2050 because of immigration. Canada runs their immigration policy primarily through skilled labor and then family reunification. In 2050, the world will be beginning to compete for skilled immigrants and this is already apparent in Toronto, Helsinki, and Stockholm. Greenland is witnessing a rising population of Inuit Eskimo.
In summary, Professor Smith outlined two important factors contributing to change in the North:
The Push - global pressures from
rising urban population and prosperity
rising natural resources, hydrocarbon demand
globalized business model and workforce
rising temperatures, coastal hazards, droughts, floods
species extinction and biodiversity loss
The Pull
milder winters
rising biomass and biodiversity
water abundance
rising maritime access (but not land)
highly globalized economies
secure peaceful borders
some favorable demographics
rising immigration
The lecture definitely provided interesting topics of discussion. For instance, one man asked how the Inuit Eskimos feel about the rising development and expansion of shipping routes in the North and the professor responded that they want business to develop there. It was an interesting evening. I didn't care so much for the time since it began at 8pm and didn't end until around 9:30, but it was a great lecture.
